(Dan Tri) – The first four months of 2024 have shown one of the most difficult times in the two years of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

The Ukrainian army is in a difficult position along the entire front line due to lack of weapons and ammunition, while Russia is recovering significant forces.

Newsweek quoted Mr. Kusti Salm, permanent secretary of the Estonian Ministry of Defense, as saying: `This year will be a difficult year. Ukrainian forces will have to focus on defense.`

In the difficult context of Kiev, Russia’s plan to stretch the enemy’s forces seems to be working.

During a recent visit to Ukraine, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg called on allies to fulfill their commitment to provide military aid to Kiev.

Ground war

Ukrainian soldiers next to a howitzer in Kherson on April 27 (Photo: Getty).

Russia continues its strong attacks along the entire front line in Eastern Ukraine.

These attacks lay the groundwork for a potentially large-scale offensive campaign this summer.

This week, the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) published an article stating that Russia’s control of the area northwest of Avdiivka, Donetsk has given the Russian Command the right to choose the next step:

Chasov Yar is just 10km east of Bakhmut, which has long been a flashpoint on the Donetsk front.

With its location on a hill with sweeping views of the surrounding area, this place has become an important gathering point for Ukrainian forces.

Chasov Yar is also the gateway to the cities of Kramatorsk and Slovyansk.

Pokrovsk is about 40km northwest of Avdiivka.

Pavel Luzin, a Russian military analyst, told Newsweek that it is `difficult to say` whether Moscow’s forces could expand their current effort for a larger operation in the summer.

`Russia does not have too many resources for a larger attack. What we see is Russia trying to encircle a significant group of Ukrainian forces in Avdiivka, like in Ilovaisk in August 2014 and in Debaltsevo in

Ukraine is expected to continue seeking to disrupt Russia’s communications, logistics and industrial activities as much as possible.

Long-range drone strikes on targets inside Russia have become common, and Ukraine shows little sign of slowing down even if Washington disagrees.

The appearance of long-range ATACMS missiles aided by the US will help Kiev increase the range of attacks, including the target of the Crimea bridge connecting the Russian mainland with the Crimean peninsula.

However, Ivan Stupak, a former official of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), said that Kiev only has a short time, about 2 months, to take advantage of ATACMS before Russia finds a solution.


Predict the situation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in the coming months

Ukrainian MiG-29 fighter jet in Donetsk (Photo: AFP).

This year could see a major shift in Ukraine’s air defense capabilities as Kiev plans to receive dozens of F-16 fighter jets from the West.

Kiev said these aircraft will strengthen Ukraine’s defense against Russian cruise missiles and drones, while also protecting ground forces from Moscow’s air strikes.

Moscow’s glide bombs played a key role in the first half of 2024, allowing its aircraft to drop large amounts of ammunition on Ukrainian positions from a relatively safe distance.

The F-16 will make frontline areas more dangerous for Russian pilots, as Ukraine is expected to use air-to-air missiles with a range of up to 500km.

In contrast, Russia is said to have suffered great losses when a series of aircraft were shot down or destroyed in recent months due to Ukrainian raids, including attacks targeting air bases deep in its territory.

However, leaders in Kiev and some allies abroad have repeatedly warned that a small force of F-16s will not change the battlefield.

It remains to be seen whether Western powers can solve the logistical and political challenges of delivering large numbers of combat aircraft, giving Ukraine a major advantage on the battlefield.

One thing is certain: the F-16 aid batch will help strengthen the Ukrainian air force, which has been weakened after two years of conflict.

The `cat and mouse` situation at sea

Predict the situation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in the coming months

Ukraine’s Magura suicide boat (Photo: AFP).

Russia and Ukraine are expected to continue the `cat and mouse` battle at sea.

Kiev’s drones and cruise missiles pose a threat to Russia’s Black Sea Fleet.

Russia has made adjustments to its tactics and defense capabilities, but Ukraine’s new long-range weapons are still a problem that worries Moscow.

Ukraine does not have a significant conventional navy of its own, although leaders in Kiev have long called on Western partners to provide new ships.

Small Ukrainian ships will not be able to pose a serious threat to the Russian Black Sea Fleet.